The Federal Reserve decides rates eight times a year. On those days the market trades on emotion, not fundamentals — and it sells fear. The FOMC Dip Capture is a rules-based model that takes the other side in QQQ: it buys at the close whenever the broad market (SPY) closes down on a decision day, then lets time — not hope — unwind the panic. No discretion. No chart-gazing. One signal, repeated for over a decade.
The trigger is SPY's own reaction to the statement. When the index closes lower on a scheduled FOMC day, a signal is qualified and a QQQ position is opened at that close; up days are ignored. This single filter turns eight noisy events a year into a small set of high-quality, fear-driven entries. The model does not forecast the Fed — it simply fades the market's worst emotional hours, where QQQ's higher beta gives the snap-back the most room to run.
The signal is read from SPY; the position is taken in QQQ — the higher-beta expression of the same mean reversion. Nothing else. No leverage, no second instrument. One signal, one trade, one vehicle.
| Strategy | Win Rate | Ann. Return | Max Drawdown | % Time In |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ Dip · 1 week | 59% | +2% | −11% | 8% |
| QQQ Dip · 1 month | 72% | +10% | −21% | 33% |
| QQQ Dip · 3 months | 84% | +18% | −29% | 77% |
| QQQ buy & hold (benchmark) | — | +19% | −35% | 100% |
| SPY buy & hold (benchmark) | — | +14% | −34% | 100% |
At the 3-month hold the QQQ dip's +18% annualized lands just shy of QQQ's own +19% buy-and-hold — but it gets there with an 84% win rate, a smaller drawdown (−29% vs −35%), and only 77% of the time in the market. Against SPY buy-and-hold (+14%) it clearly leads. The shorter holds trail the benchmarks but do so with a fraction of the time exposure. The trade-off is explicit: patience is what converts a down-Fed-day into an edge.
Built for systematic and private-account capital that can commit to a low-frequency, contrarian posture in QQQ. Not a day trade. Not a hedge against a thesis. A standing order to buy the market's fear on the days it is most afraid.